U.S.-China Tariff Update and Strategic Analysis - Post Geneva Conference (May 2025)

Published date : 12th May, 2025

Following the pivotal Geneva summit held on 12th May 2025, the United States and China agreed to a 90-day truce to de-escalate their trade tensions. This period, ending on Sunday, 10 August 2025 (approximately 12.9 weeks), provides a window for negotiation and adjustment amidst rapidly evolving global economic conditions

Tariff Comparison: Before vs After Geneva Agreement

U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Goods

Before May 12, 2025	After May 12, 2025
Total tariffs reached up to 145%	Total tariffs reduced to 30%
20% fentanyl-related tariff	20% fentanyl-related tariff
10% universal import tariff	10% universal import tariff
115% retaliatory tariffs	Retaliatory tariffs suspended for 90 days

China's Tariffs on U.S. Goods

Before May 12, 2025:	After May 12, 2025:
Total tariffs stood at 125%	Tariffs reduced to 10%
10% base import tariff	Retention of only the base tariff
115% retaliatory tariffs	Suspension of retaliatory tariffs contingent on progress in negotiations

Low-Value Shipments (De Minimis Rule)

From China to the U.S.: . Before: Tariffs on shipments under $800 were up to 120% . After: Tariffs capped at 54%, with commercial shipments at 30%

Strategic Viewpoint on the 90-Day Truce

End Date: Sunday, 10 August 2025 Strategic Implications: 1. Temporary Relief: A strategic pause, not a resolution, allowing both economies to recalibrate. 2. U.S. Political Calculus: Provides time for the administration to maneuver domestically while retaining leverage. 3. China's Strategy: Aims to stabilize trade flows, restore investor confidence, and prepare for long-term supply chain shifts.

U.S. - China Traiff Update and Strategic Analysis - Post Geneva Conference ( May 2025)

Industries Most Impacted
1. Consumer Electronics & Semiconductors: Tariff reduction offers slight relief; uncertainty persists. 2. Textile & Fast Fashion: Immediate benefits for platforms like Shein and Temu. 3. Agriculture: U.S. farmers may see short-term export growth 4. Automotive & EV Components: Minor relief; supply chains remain under pressure. 5. Pharmaceuticals & MedTech: Export-import flows slightly eased for critical medical goods.

For more insights on how industries are going to be impacted listen to the full podcast here

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What to Monitor in the Next 90 Days - Outcomes of ongoing negotiations - Potential reinstatement of suspended tariffs - Official communications from USTR and China's Ministry of Commerce - Shifts in supply chain strategies and sourcing behavior - Corporate earnings, stock reactions, and pricing adjustments
The Rising Importance of Market Intelligence With volatile tariff environments and rapid policy shifts, market intelligence has become indispensable: 1. Entry Strategy:Informed decisions based on trade policies and tariff impacts. 2. Risk Mitigation: Identify politically sensitive sectors before investing. 3. Regulatory Agility: Anticipate and adapt to new trade laws and barriers. 4. Customer Behavior: Align with evolving demand and distribution shifts. 5. Global Positioning: Enhance brand and product localization strategies.

What should we do now -

While recent developments provide temporary relief, trade uncertainty persists. Market intelligence is no longer optional. It is critical for survival and growth in this high-stakes environment. Understanding your market is the only path to confidently entering and succeeding in it.

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